How Barack Obama’s Economic Policies Might Affect You

Congratulations to Barack Obama on becoming our 44th President.  It’s truly an historic moment when an African American man can ascend to the highest office in the land and it shows how far this nation has come in the last 40 years when it comes to racism.  Whether you voted for him or not, you have to admit that it is once again going to be an interesting time in America.

Mr. Obama comes into the office with an economy clearly on the decline and financial markets still largely in turmoil and he admitted that it will be an uphill climb for his administration to fix these issues.  How that will be done remains to be seen, but we can glean some insight into his economic philosophy from his comments at the debates to the numerous press interviews he’s granted over the course of the campaign.  Here are some of the trends you can anticipate during the Obama Presidency.

Capital Gains Taxes

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Obama has said that he would like to increase the tax rate on long-term capital gains.  Currently the rate sits at 15% and Mr. Obama has said he might raise them as high as 28%, which was the rate when Bill Clinton took office.

What should you do?  If you’re convinced he will raise the capital gains rate next year, you should realize as many gains in this year as possible so you can benefit from the low current rate.

Income Taxes

Mr. Obama has said that he intends to reduce income taxes on those making less than $250,000 per year and raise taxes on those making more than $250,000 per year.

If you’re currently make less than $250,000 per year and you anticipate you will make less than that in 2009, then pushing income into next year should save on your taxes.  If you make more than $250,000 then you should push as much income into this year in anticipation that your taxes will go up under the Obama plan.

Infrastructure Upgrades

We all know that our roads and bridges are, in many places, in dire need of repair or replacement.  During the campaign, Mr. Obama indicated that one of the tools he might use to prop up the economy is to use Federal money to do those repairs, thus pumping billions of dollars to construction companies, heavy equipment manufacturers and construction-related jobs.

If Mr. Obama is successful, you should position a portion of your portfolio to take advantage of those industries that would benefit, like construction and equipment makers.

Barack Obama has certainly sparked the imagination of many Americans and it’s good to see a sense of enthusiasm out there again.  The few items we’ve listed is far from an exhaustive list and I’m sure that, as we transition from the Bush Presidency to the Obama Presidency, many other trends will begin to develop.  All we can do is to try to stay on top of those trends so that we can all benefit to the greatest degree possible as this country recovers from our current economic malaise.

America rocks!!

What’s a Terrified Investor Supposed To Do?

The Dow Industrial Average is down more than 35% so far this year, with an almost 679 point drop today alone.  There’s not doubt about it, but this market is in the midst of a full-blown panic.

Stocks are down, bonds are down or barely hanging on, oil and gold are down, real estate is down.  So given all the doom and gloom, what’s a shell shocked investor supposed to do?  Here are few tips to help you ride out the current market.

  • Don’t panic. Now is not the time to sell all your stocks.  If you were going to do that, the time was 12 to 18 months ago.  By selling now, you’ll simply lock in what is still a paper loss.
  • Remember your time horizon. If you’re young, this market will provide a great buying opportunity.  If you’re nearing retirement, you may want to follow the next piece of advice.
  • Scale back your equity exposure. Don’t sell everything, but it would be wise to have a little more cash than usual.  We currently have our clients with a lot more cash than usual so we can start buying again when the panic subsides.
  • Review your asset allocation. Some asset classes have gotten hit harder than others.  Now is a great opportunity to reallocate your portfolio without the tax bite you might get under more normal circumstances.
  • Talk to your advisor. If you haven’t spoken to, or heard from, your advisor, now is the time to be proactive and schedule an appointment to review the above items.  You’ll most likely leave that meeting knowing you’re doing everything in your power to minimize the damage of our current situation.

This has undoubtedly been a brutal market that has tested the stomachs of even the most seasoned professionals.  While you may have to make small adjustments to your current portfolio to reflect current circumstances, remember that your investment portfolio is built for the LONG TERM and that, over time, your patience and fortitude will be rewarded.

House Republicans Need to Get a Clue

Well, as cynical as I am about politics, the Republicans in the House of Representatives just dropped my own cynicism to a historic low.  The House just now FAILED to pass the bailout package that was negotiated over the weekend.  The result?  As this is being written, the Dow Industrial Average is down more than 500 points.

Republicans, who overwhelmingly rejected the bailout package, just had a press conference wherein they blamed not the package itself, but a ‘partisan’ speech given by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi that apparently angered some Republicans enough that they voted no, despite previously indicating that they would vote yes.  The bailout package didn’t change, but apparently hurt feelings are enough to change somebody’s mind.  Seriously, a no vote because you essentially got your feeling hurt?  What are we, in third grade again?  Are you so clueless that you truly cannot put aside partisan politics to help this country avoid economic calamity and get back on the road to recovery?

While our economic system is wounded, clearly our political system is completely broken, when a group of ELECTED officials find it impossible to do what’s right for the American public because they got their feelings hurt.

Life on some tropical Polynesian island run by a king is starting to look pretty appealing right about now.

Congress Just Doesn’t Get It

Congress continues to debate the government bailout package proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Fed chair Ben Bernanke and SEC chair Christopher Cox.  In the meantime, the markets are spooked and the credit markets are on the brink of complete collapse.  It seems, as always, that Congress just doesn’t get it.

The Congress may have forgotten (or most may not know) that the Great Depression not caused by the stock market crash of 1929, but by the failure of the Government to provide the liquidity banks needed at the time to keep their doors open and lend money to their customers.  While I’m not saying that we’re on the brink of another Great Depression (I’m an optimist by nature), we’re in a similar credit crunch and failure to act could damage our already struggling economy and add years to the time it will take to recover.

Ron Paul was right in his CNNPolitics.com commentary that this mess was created by artificially low interest rates that magnified the real estate bubble, and while his solution of rolling back stifling laws and regulations, divorcing oursleves of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reducing the Federal buget deficit and reducing regulation will work in the long term, in the immediate term, this bailout is the best alternative we have to stabilize not only the U.S. economy, but the world economy as well.

Congress needs to finally get a clue, quickly put together a proposal with the oversight and CEO restrictions they want and pass the damn bill so the financial markets can return to some form of normalcy.

This Time is Not Different

With the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers and the shotgun wedding between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, many investors are concerned with the viability of our financial markets.  Oh, how short our memories are.

Ten years ago, in 1998, a hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management, failed, creating market panic similar to what we’re seeing today.  The fear at the time was that, due to the size of the fund and its leverage, having to sell its positions could destabilize the entire financial system.

Similar to today, the Federal Reserve and other large banks worked to minimize the damage from the collapse and the world financial system was ‘saved.’  Not only did the doomsday scenarios fail to materialize, but the stock market went on to log one of the longest bull market runs ever.

The moral of the story is that, altough financial crises like this are scary, even for the professionals, this time is most likely NOT DIFFERENT and our financial system will not only survive, but most likely survive.

Market Euphoria Fades Fast

With yesterday’s announcement that the government would be taking over both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, pundits and television talking heads began asking if the move signaled a bottom for both the housing market as well as the stock market.

Well, the market today responded with a resounding ‘NO’ and fell by almost the exact amount by which it rose yesterday.

The government’s move yesterday did have the effect of immediately dropping most mortgage rates by around 50 basis points.  The problem, as I was discussing yesterady with two friends who are mortgage brokers, is that unless lenders are willing to again start lending, the interest rate on loans is largely irrelevant.

Any time there is a bubble in the market, in this case the exceedingly easy access to financing we’ve seen the past few years, and that bubble bursts, the pendulum usually overreacts in the opposite direction.  Qualified borrowers, with high credit scores, low loan to value and adequate cash reserves are still finding it incredibly challenging to get real estate financing.   Not until LENDERS feel that the real estate market has stabilized will they begin to loosen up their underwriting a little allowing the credit markets to return to some modicum of normalcy.

I hope and wish that those pundits from yesterday were right and that we are forming a bottom in the market as it would be nice to be able to give friends, family and clients some good news for a change, but I’m not holding my breath.

The Fed’s In A Tough Spot

The Federal Reserve voted today to leave its federal funds rate steady at 2%.  In addition, in its statement, the Fed gave no real indication of which way rates will go in the future because I’m sure they really don’t know at this point what’s the greater risk … runaway inflation or a severe recession?  Inflation hawks, including Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, want the Fed to preemptively raise rates to cut off any chance of inflation.  Others feel that by raising rates too soon, any nascent recovery in the credit markets, as well as the broad economy, might be stifled and that leaving rates at current, historically low levels is the prudent course.

It seems at this juncture that with the exception of Mr. Fisher, who cast the lone dissenting vote, the Fed feels that the risks are equally balanced between inflation and recession and that, over time, one clear economic theme will most likely predominate.

If there’s one job I would NOT WANT in this world right now, no matter how much money you offered me, its the head of the Federal Reserve.  Mr. Bernanke and his fellow Fed board members are in a truly tough spot.

Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen some signs that inflation is moderating as the world economy slows.  Oil has come off its all-time high, as have other commodities like corn and copper, in response to what is clearly a slowing world economy.  If those trends continue, in the ensuing weeks that should translate into lower costs for gas, food and other goods as lower fuel and input costs work their way through the system.

While cooling commodity prices are encouraging, the Fed can’t become too complacent.  If they keep rates low for too long real inflation could take root and we’d have a repeat of the 1970’s ‘stagflation’.  It’s a case of ‘damned if you do and damned if you don’t.’

It’s becoming increasing obvious that any economic recovery won’t happen in 2008 and may not happen until mid-to-late 2009 the Fed is taking a prudent course until there is enough evidence one way or the other how to proceed.